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Mark Hulbert Opinion: This spot-on predictor of who will win the 2020 presidential election is not the stock market or even opinion polls Published: July 11, 2020 at 2:01 p.m. Track the 2020 Presidential Election here. The latest coverage of the 2020 presidential, House and Senate elections Cartoons of the Week. Find the latest news, photos and videos from the 2020 United States presidential election.

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Electoral College. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.Kanye West (affiliated with the Birthday Party, but listed in the poll as an independent) with 1%With voters who lean towards a given candidate if only Biden and Trump were candidatesIncluding voters who lean towards a given candidate"Some other candidate" with 8%; would not vote with 2%"Other candidate" with 5.6%; would not vote with 0.5%"Some other candidate" with 8%; would not vote with 2%"Another candidate" with 3%; "would not vote" with 2%"Some other candidate" with 8%; would not vote with 2%"Someone else" with 3%; would not vote and "refused" with 1%"Third party candidate" with 4%; would not vote with 1%Would not vote with 13%; "Third party candidate" with 6%"Someone else/third party" with 4%; would not vote with 0%"Third party candidate" with 5%; would not vote with 1%"Other" and "Neither" with 1%; would not vote with 0%"Some other candidate" with 6%; would not vote with 2%"Third party candidate" with 4%; would not vote with 2%"Some other candidate" with 5%; would not vote with 2%"Refused" with 3%; "someone else" and would not vote with 1%"Third party/write-in" with 4%; would not vote with no votersVoting intention for an exclusively vote-by-mail election"Third party/write-in" with 4%; would not vote with no voters"Third party candidate" with 5%; would not vote with 2%"Some other candidate" with 7%; would not vote with 2%Justin Amash with 5%; "Other candidate" with 1%; "no one" with 1%"Third party candidate" with 6%; would not vote with 1%"Someone else/third party" with 4%; would not vote with 0%"Would vote for a third party/write-in candidate" with 2%; would not vote with no voters"Some other candidate" with 6%; would not vote with 2%"A third party candidate" with 6%; would not vote with 0%Justin Amash with 1%; "Someone else" with 5%; "Would not vote" with 6%Vote shares listed as proportion of decided voters for candidate X + proportion of leaners for candidate X * proportion of voters who are leaners"Third party candidate" with 6%; would not vote with 1%"Third party candidate" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 2%"Third party candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 2%Percentages calculated as listed percentage in sample without undecided voters * Percentage of voters who are not undecided"Would vote for a third party/write-in candidate" with 4%"Third party candidate" with 4%; would not vote with 3%"Third party candidate" with 5%; would not vote with 1%"Someone else/third party" with 4%; "would not vote with" 1%"Other" with 0%; "Neither" with 2%; "would not vote with" 1%Sample size for registered voters sourced from FiveThirtyEightOther with 0%; neither with 2%; would not vote with 1%"Neither" with 2%; would not vote with 2%; other with 0%7% said they'd probably (as opposed to definitely) vote for Trump12% said they'd probably (as opposed to definitely) vote for Biden"Someone else" with 13%; "Wouldn't vote" with 6%; no answer with 1%"Third party candidate" with 4%; would not vote with 4%"Third party candidate" with 8%; would not vote with 0%"Third party candidate" with 4%; would not vote with 2%Percentages calculated as listed percentage in sample without undecided voters * Percentage of voters who are not undecided"Would vote for a third party/write-in candidate" with 3%"Third party candidate" with 4%; would not vote with 4%"Third party candidate" with 4%; would not vote with 2%"Someone else/third party" with 3%; "would not vote with" 1%"Other" with no voters; "Neither" with 3%; would not vote with 1%Sample size for registered voters sourced from FiveThirtyEightOther with 0%; neither with 2%; would not vote with 1%Responses to the question: “If the 2020 U.S. Presidential election was held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump?”Responses to the question: “If the 2020 U.S. Presidential election was held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Democrat Bernie Sanders and Republican Donald Trump?”Responses to the question: " “If the 2020 U.S. Presidential election was held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Democrat Bernie Sanders, who wants to tax the billionaire class to help the working class and Republican Donald Trump, who says Sanders is a socialist who supports a government takeover of healthcare and open borders?”""Neither" with 2%; would not vote with 1%; other with 0%"Third party candidate" with 5%; would not vote with 1%"Someone else/third party" with 3%; "would not vote with" 1%"Other" with 0%; "Neither" with 2%; "would not vote with" 1%Sample size for registered voters sourced from FiveThirtyEightOther with 0%; neither with 2%; would not vote with 2%"Neither" with 2%; would not vote with 2%; other with 0%7% said they'd probably (as opposed to definitely) vote for Trump9% said they'd probably (as opposed to definitely) vote for Warren"Someone else" with 17%; "Wouldn't vote" with 6%; no answer with 1%"Third party candidate" with 7%; would not vote with 2%"Someone else/third party" with 6%; "would not vote with" 1%"Other" with 0%; "Neither" with 2%; would not vote with 1%Sample size for registered voters sourced from FiveThirtyEightOther with 1%; neither with 2%; would not vote with 1%"Someone else/third party" with 5%; "would not vote with" 1%"Other" with 0%; "Neither" with 3%; would not vote with 1%Other with 0%; neither with 2%; would not vote with 2%"Third party candidate" with 5%; would not vote with 2%"Someone else/third party" with 5%; "would not vote with" 1%"Other" with 1%; "Neither" with 3%; would not vote with 1%Sample size for registered voters sourced from FiveThirtyEightOther with 0%; neither with 3%; would not vote with 2%"Neither" with 3%; would not vote with 2%; other with 1%Would not vote with 3%; "Neither" with 2%; other with 0%Not yet released, but poll published on Feb 3, 2019Barack Obama is ineligible to run for president due to the Ocasio-Cortez is ineligible to run for president until the 2024 Presidential election due to not meeting the minimum age requirement set out in Not yet released, but poll published on Feb 3, 2019West (B) with 5%; Jorgensen (L) with 4%; Hawkins (G) with 2%Percentages listed as a combination of decided voters + leaners * proportion of voters who are undecided"Would vote for independent or other candidate" with 6%"Would vote for independent or other candidate" with 6%"Would vote for independent or other candidate" with 7%Includes 'other', but not 'will vote for independent and/or other candidate'Includes 'other', but not 'will vote for independent and/or other candidate'Includes 'other', but not 'will vote for independent and/or other candidate'Includes 'other', but not 'will vote for independent and/or other candidate'Includes 'other', but not 'will vote for independent and/or other candidate'Percentage listed as a % of respondents who said they'd definitely vote for the Democratic nominee as a proportion of respondents who said they would definitely not vote for Trump"Definitely not Trump and definitely not the Democratic candidate" with 2%"Definitely not voting for Trump, but waiting to see the Democratic nominee before deciding whether to vote for them" with 36%; "Would consider voting for Trump" with 14%; "No opinion" with 3%; "No opinion besides definitely not voting for Trump" with 1%Listed as "Someone else should be in office" looking ahead to the 2020 presidential election, as opposed to "Trump should be re-elected""Would probably or definitely vote for someone other than Trump" with 55%"Would consider voting for Trump" with 13%; "Don't know/no answer" with 3%"Would definitely not consider voting for Trump" with 56%"Would consider voting for Trump" with 14%; "No opinion" with 1%Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act OrganisationGiffords is a PAC which supports gun control measuresPoll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act OrganisationThis poll was sponsored by the Senate Majority PAC, which supports Democratic Senate candidates, and Priorities USA, a Democratic super PACThe 314 Action Fund is a PAC which supports the election of scientistsThe poll's sponsor is a pro-Affordable Care Act organisationThis poll's sponsor, Protect Our Care, is a pro-Affordable Care Act organisationBy the time of the poll's sampling dates, Data for Progress had endorsed the Elizabeth Warren 2020 presidential campaignAn internal poll released by Schultz prior to him ruling out a 2020 presidential bidAn internal poll released by Schultz prior to him ruling out a 2020 presidential bid

Here's what's at stake.

Republican President Donald Trump is seeking a second term in 2020. The latest news, analyses and polls on the 2020 United States presidential election.Legal battles will have an outsize impact on whose vote gets counted this year, and voting rights advocates fear new rules will perpetuate old problems.Mike De Sisti / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel via Reuters fileHouse debates Postal Service changes, funds ahead of vote in rare Saturday sessionSpruced-up White House Rose Garden set for Melania Trump speechBiden sticks landing to close an otherwise cautious conventionAn all-out war over mail voting has erupted in courts across the country.

Get a unique perspective of the Presidential Election with analysis around Republican and Democratic campaigns, debates, polls, election results, and more. Looking for public opinion metrics that matter for the 2020 presidential election? Former Vice President The following candidates are ordered by the date they withdrew or suspended their campaign. 2020 Elections.

Home Polls Presidential Candidate Tracker Delegate Tracker Candidate ... Latest Election Polls. The model first averages the polls, weighting them by their sample sizes and correcting them for tendencies to overestimate support for one party.

... Presidential Job Approval. The following graph depicts the standing of each candidate in the poll aggregators from September 2019 to present.

Read headlines covering the presidential debates, results, and more. It then combines this average with our forecast based on non-polling data, pulling vote shares on each day slightly towards the final election-day projection. Top Battlegrounds vs. 4 Yrs Ago.

Come back often to see if he can win again. Recent polls show him with an edge of eight to nine percentage points among likely voters.

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